The coronavirus outbreak is expected to have a longer and larger shock on import at major U.S. retail container larboard than previously believe as manufactory closing and travel limitation in China continue to affect output , according to the Global Port Tracker report free by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates .
“ There are still a lot of unknowns to fully determine the encroachment of the coronavirus on the supply mountain chain , ” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said . “ As factories in China continue to fall back online , products are now flowing again . But there are still takings affect cargo trend , including the handiness of truck drivers to move cargo to Taiwanese porthole . Retailers are shape with both their supplier and transportation providers to find paths forwards to minimize perturbation . ”
“ Now that we are in the coronavirus surroundings , dubiousness has expanded exponentially , ” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett enunciate . “ Our projection are based on the optimistic eyeshot that by the end of March or early April some kind of normalcy will have returned to trade . ”
This month ’s paper comes as a disjoined NRF survey of penis find 40 pct of respondents said they are seeing disruptions to their supply chains from the virus and that another 26 percent look to see disruptions as the place go on .
U.S. ports pass over by Global Port Tracker handle 1.82 million Twenty - Foot Equivalent Units in January , the late calendar month for which after - the - fact number are available . That was up 5.7 percent from December but down 3.8 percent from outstandingly high numbers a year ago associate to U.S. tariffs on good from China . A TEU is one 20 - foot - long loading container or its combining weight .
February was estimated at 1.42 million TEU , slightly above the 1.41 million TEU expected a month ago but down 12.6 percent from last year and importantly lower than the 1.54 million TEU prognosis before the coronavirus start to have an outcome on imports . March is forecast at 1.32 million TEU , down 18.3 percent from last year and less than the 1.46 million TEU expected last month or the 1.7 million TEU forecast before the virus .
April , which had not antecedently been require to be affected , is now prefigure at 1.68 million TEU , down 3.5 percent from last twelvemonth and lower than the 1.82 million TEU forecast last month .
While the coronavirus makes forecasting hard , the report calls for imports to jump to 2.02 million TEU in May , a 9.3 percent increment year - over - year , on the assumption that Taiwanese factories will have resumed most production by then and will be try on to make up for low-pitched volume earlier . June is predict at 1.97 million TEU , up 9.6 per centum year - over - year , and July is calculate at 2.03 million TEU , up 3.3 percentage year - over - yr .
import during 2019 totaled 21.6 million TEU , a 0.8 per centum decrement from 2018 amid the on-going trade state of war but still the second - highest year on phonograph recording . The first half of 2020 is forecast to total 10.23 million TEU , down 2.8 per centum from the same menses last year and below the 10.47 million TEU forecast a month ago .
Global Port Tracker , which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates , provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles / Long Beach , Oakland , Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast ; New York / New Jersey , Port of Virginia , Charleston , Savannah , Port Everglades , Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast , and Houston on the Gulf Coast . The report is free to NRF retail members , and subscription information is available atNRF.com/PortTrackeror by call ( 202 ) 783 - 7971 . Subscription data for non - members can be found atwww.globalporttracker.com .
